{"source":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondages","licence":"Données sources MieuxVoter / NSPPolls (licence MIT) ; agrégats et textes Baromètre 2027, réutilisables avec mention « Baromètre 2027, sondage-presidentielle.fr ».","genereLe":"2026-09-19T14:29:00.211Z","sondages":[{"slug":"harris-interactive-2026-09-10","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/harris-interactive-2026-09-10","institut":"Harris Interactive","commanditaire":"M6, RTL","debut":"2026-09-08","fin":"2026-09-10","echantillon":2358,"exprimes":1304,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10263-pres-iv-toluna-harris-interactive-rtl-14-septembre.pdf","resume":"Harris Interactive pour M6, RTL, sondage réalisé du 8 au 10 septembre 2026 auprès de 2 358 personnes, dont 1 304 exprimant une intention de vote. Marine Le Pen recueillerait 33 % des intentions de vote, devant Jean-Luc Mélenchon (16 %) et Édouard Philippe (14 %). Dans l'hypothèse d'un duel, Marine Le Pen l'emporterait nettement avec 67 % face à Jean-Luc Mélenchon (33 %) (3 duels testés).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H67","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Glucksmann + Attal","exprimes":1339,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":33,"margeErreur":2.52},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":16,"margeErreur":1.96},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":14,"margeErreur":1.86},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":9,"margeErreur":1.53},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":8,"margeErreur":1.45},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":7,"margeErreur":1.37},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.17},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.91},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.75},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.75},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.53}]},{"id":"H42","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Glucksmann","exprimes":1317,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":34,"margeErreur":2.56},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":17,"margeErreur":2.03},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":17,"margeErreur":2.03},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":10,"margeErreur":1.62},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":7,"margeErreur":1.38},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.18},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.92},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.92},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.92},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.54}]},{"id":"H44","tour":"premier","libelle":"Attal + Glucksmann","exprimes":1304,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le 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Mélenchon","intentions":17,"margeErreur":2.03},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":9,"margeErreur":1.55},{"id":"FH","nom":"François Hollande","intentions":7,"margeErreur":1.38},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.18},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.06},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.92},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.76},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.54}]},{"id":"H76","tour":"premier","libelle":"Attal + Hollande","exprimes":1312,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":36,"margeErreur":2.6},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":17,"margeErreur":2.03},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":15,"margeErreur":1.93},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":10,"margeErreur":1.62},{"id":"FH","nom":"François Hollande","intentions":7,"margeErreur":1.38},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.18},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.06},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.92},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.76},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.54}]},{"id":"H2_9","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Mélenchon","exprimes":1116,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":67,"margeErreur":2.76},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":33,"margeErreur":2.76}]},{"id":"H2_8","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Attal","exprimes":1178,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":56,"margeErreur":2.83},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":44,"margeErreur":2.83}]},{"id":"H2_2","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Philippe","exprimes":1174,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":55,"margeErreur":2.85},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":45,"margeErreur":2.85}]}]},{"slug":"opinionway-2026-09-10","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/opinionway-2026-09-10","institut":"OpinionWay","commanditaire":"CNews","debut":"2026-09-09","fin":"2026-09-10","echantillon":1001,"exprimes":690,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2273","resume":"OpinionWay pour CNews, sondage réalisé du 9 au 10 septembre 2026 auprès de 1 001 personnes, dont 690 exprimant une intention de vote. Marine Le Pen recueillerait 32 % des intentions de vote, devant Jean-Luc Mélenchon (16 %) et Édouard Philippe (16 %). Dans l'hypothèse d'un duel, Marine Le Pen l'emporterait nettement avec 67 % face à Jean-Luc Mélenchon (33 %) (2 duels testés).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H89","tour":"premier","libelle":"Hollande seul","exprimes":690,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":32,"margeErreur":3.48},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":16,"margeErreur":2.74},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":16,"margeErreur":2.74},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":8,"margeErreur":2.02},{"id":"FH","nom":"François Hollande","intentions":7,"margeErreur":1.9},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":7,"margeErreur":1.9},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.27},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.27},{"id":"DL","nom":"David Lisnard","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.04},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.04},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.04},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.74},{"id":"KB","nom":"Karim Bouamrane","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.74}]},{"id":"H90","tour":"premier","libelle":"Royal seul","exprimes":690,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":33,"margeErreur":3.51},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":17,"margeErreur":2.8},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":16,"margeErreur":2.74},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":8,"margeErreur":2.02},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":7,"margeErreur":1.9},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.46},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.27},{"id":"SRo","nom":"Ségolène Royal","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.27},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.27},{"id":"DL","nom":"David Lisnard","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.04},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.04},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.74},{"id":"KB","nom":"Karim Bouamrane","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.74}]},{"id":"H91","tour":"premier","libelle":"Glucksmann seul","exprimes":690,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":34,"margeErreur":3.53},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":17,"margeErreur":2.8},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.66},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":9,"margeErreur":2.14},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":7,"margeErreur":1.9},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":7,"margeErreur":1.9},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.27},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.04},{"id":"DL","nom":"David Lisnard","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.04},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.04},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.04},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":0.5,"margeErreur":0.53},{"id":"KB","nom":"Karim Bouamrane","intentions":0.5,"margeErreur":0.53}]},{"id":"H2_9","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Mélenchon","exprimes":690,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":67,"margeErreur":3.51},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":33,"margeErreur":3.51}]},{"id":"H2_2","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Philippe","exprimes":690,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":55,"margeErreur":3.71},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":45,"margeErreur":3.71}]}]},{"slug":"ipsos-bva-2026-09-09","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/ipsos-bva-2026-09-09","institut":"Ipsos BVA","commanditaire":"CEVIPOF, Le Monde, Fondation Jean Jaurès, Institut Montaigne","debut":"2026-09-03","fin":"2026-09-09","echantillon":13060,"exprimes":8984,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10262-pres-enquete-electorale-ipsos-bva-le-monde-13-septembre.pdf","resume":"Ipsos BVA pour CEVIPOF, Le Monde, Fondation Jean Jaurès, Institut Montaigne, sondage réalisé du 3 au 9 septembre 2026 auprès de 13 060 personnes, dont 8 984 exprimant une intention de vote. Marine Le Pen recueillerait 33 % des intentions de vote, devant Jean-Luc Mélenchon (16 %) et Édouard Philippe (14 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H67","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Glucksmann + Attal","exprimes":9445,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":33,"margeErreur":0.95},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":15.5,"margeErreur":0.73},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":14,"margeErreur":0.7},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":11.5,"margeErreur":0.64},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":7,"margeErreur":0.51},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":6,"margeErreur":0.48},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":0.4},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":4,"margeErreur":0.4},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2.5,"margeErreur":0.31},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.28},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":0.5,"margeErreur":0.14}]},{"id":"H42","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Glucksmann","exprimes":9327,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":33.5,"margeErreur":0.96},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":17.5,"margeErreur":0.77},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":15.5,"margeErreur":0.73},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":12.5,"margeErreur":0.67},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":8,"margeErreur":0.55},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":0.4},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":4,"margeErreur":0.4},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2.5,"margeErreur":0.32},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.28},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":0.5,"margeErreur":0.14}]},{"id":"H44","tour":"premier","libelle":"Glucksmann + Attal","exprimes":9233,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le 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Marine Le Pen recueillerait 34 % des intentions de vote, devant Jean-Luc Mélenchon (15 %) et Édouard Philippe (15 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H67","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Attal","exprimes":699,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":34,"margeErreur":3.51},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.65},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.65},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":9,"margeErreur":2.12},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":8,"margeErreur":2.01},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":8,"margeErreur":2.01},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.45},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.26},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.04},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.04},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":0.5,"margeErreur":0.52}]},{"id":"H44","tour":"premier","libelle":"Attal seul","exprimes":699,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":34,"margeErreur":3.51},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.65},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":14,"margeErreur":2.57},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":12,"margeErreur":2.41},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":12,"margeErreur":2.41},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.45},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.45},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.04},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.04},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.74}]},{"id":"H42","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe seul","exprimes":699,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":34,"margeErreur":3.51},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":19,"margeErreur":2.91},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.65},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":10,"margeErreur":2.22},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":10,"margeErreur":2.22},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.45},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.26},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.26},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.74},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.74}]}]},{"slug":"opinionway-2026-09-04","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/opinionway-2026-09-04","institut":"OpinionWay","commanditaire":"Sébastien Bonnal","debut":"2026-09-02","fin":"2026-09-04","echantillon":1034,"exprimes":700,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10264-pres-opinionway-facebook-15-septembre.pdf","resume":"OpinionWay pour Sébastien Bonnal, sondage réalisé du 2 au 4 septembre 2026 auprès de 1 034 personnes, dont 700 exprimant une intention de vote. Marine Le Pen recueillerait 34 % des intentions de vote, devant Jean-Luc Mélenchon (16 %) et Édouard Philippe (15 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H100","tour":"premier","libelle":"Liste unique","exprimes":700,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":34,"margeErreur":3.51},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":16,"margeErreur":2.72},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.65},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":12,"margeErreur":2.41},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":7,"margeErreur":1.89},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":7,"margeErreur":1.89},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.26},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.26},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.04},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.74},{"id":"SB","nom":"Sébastien Bonnal","intentions":0.5,"margeErreur":0.52}]}]},{"slug":"opinionway-2026-09-03","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/opinionway-2026-09-03","institut":"OpinionWay","commanditaire":"JDD","debut":"2026-09-02","fin":"2026-09-03","echantillon":1003,"exprimes":680,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2264","resume":"OpinionWay pour JDD, sondage réalisé du 2 au 3 septembre 2026 auprès de 1 003 personnes, dont 680 exprimant une intention de vote. Marine Le Pen recueillerait 34 % des intentions de vote, devant Jean-Luc Mélenchon (17 %) et Édouard Philippe (15 %). Dans l'hypothèse d'un duel, Marine Le Pen l'emporterait nettement avec 55 % face à Gabriel Attal (45 %) (3 duels testés).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H28","tour":"premier","libelle":"Attal seul","exprimes":680,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":35,"margeErreur":3.59},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":17,"margeErreur":2.82},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":13,"margeErreur":2.53},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":13,"margeErreur":2.53},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":11,"margeErreur":2.35},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.47},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.28},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.28},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.75}]},{"id":"H26","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe seul","exprimes":680,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":33,"margeErreur":3.53},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":20,"margeErreur":3.01},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":16,"margeErreur":2.76},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":12,"margeErreur":2.44},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":8,"margeErreur":2.04},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.47},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.28},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.28},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.75}]},{"id":"H77","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Attal","exprimes":680,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":34,"margeErreur":3.56},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":17,"margeErreur":2.82},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.68},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":11,"margeErreur":2.35},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":7,"margeErreur":1.92},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":7,"margeErreur":1.92},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.28},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.28},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.05},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.75}]},{"id":"H2_8","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Attal","exprimes":680,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":55,"margeErreur":3.74},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":45,"margeErreur":3.74}]},{"id":"H2_2","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Philippe","exprimes":680,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":52,"margeErreur":3.76},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":48,"margeErreur":3.76}]},{"id":"H2_9","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Mélenchon","exprimes":680,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":66,"margeErreur":3.56},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":34,"margeErreur":3.56}]}]},{"slug":"ipsos-bva-2026-09-02","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/ipsos-bva-2026-09-02","institut":"Ipsos BVA","commanditaire":"Le Parisien","debut":"2026-08-31","fin":"2026-09-02","echantillon":1500,"exprimes":979,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2262","resume":"Ipsos BVA pour Le Parisien, sondage réalisé du 31 août au 2 septembre 2026 auprès de 1 500 personnes, dont 979 exprimant une intention de vote. Marine Le Pen recueillerait 34 % des intentions de vote, devant Jean-Luc Mélenchon (15 %) et Édouard Philippe (15 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H67","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Glucksmann + Attal","exprimes":1020,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":34,"margeErreur":2.91},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.19},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":14.5,"margeErreur":2.16},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":11.5,"margeErreur":1.96},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":7.5,"margeErreur":1.62},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":6,"margeErreur":1.46},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3.5,"margeErreur":1.13},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.05},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2.5,"margeErreur":0.96},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.86},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie 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Marine Le Pen recueillerait 29 % des intentions de vote, devant Jean-Luc Mélenchon (17 %) et Édouard Philippe (17 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H50","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Tondelier","exprimes":1150,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":30,"margeErreur":2.65},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":18.2,"margeErreur":2.23},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":17.9,"margeErreur":2.22},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":11.6,"margeErreur":1.85},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":7.5,"margeErreur":1.52},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3.5,"margeErreur":1.06},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":3.2,"margeErreur":1.02},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2.9,"margeErreur":0.97},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":2.2,"margeErreur":0.85},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2.1,"margeErreur":0.83},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":0.9,"margeErreur":0.55}]},{"id":"H52","tour":"premier","libelle":"Attal + Tondelier","exprimes":1131,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":31.6,"margeErreur":2.71},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":18.2,"margeErreur":2.25},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":13.5,"margeErreur":1.99},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":11.5,"margeErreur":1.86},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":8.9,"margeErreur":1.66},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.14},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.14},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2.8,"margeErreur":0.96},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":2.5,"margeErreur":0.91},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2.1,"margeErreur":0.84},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":0.9,"margeErreur":0.55}]},{"id":"H88","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Lisnard + Ruffin","exprimes":1211,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":29.2,"margeErreur":2.56},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":16.9,"margeErreur":2.11},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":16.8,"margeErreur":2.11},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":10.8,"margeErreur":1.75},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":6.5,"margeErreur":1.39},{"id":"DL","nom":"David Lisnard","intentions":4.2,"margeErreur":1.13},{"id":"FR","nom":"François Ruffin","intentions":3.9,"margeErreur":1.09},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":3.5,"margeErreur":1.04},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3.3,"margeErreur":1.01},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2.2,"margeErreur":0.83},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":1.9,"margeErreur":0.77},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":0.8,"margeErreur":0.5}]}]},{"slug":"elabe-2026-08-28","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/elabe-2026-08-28","institut":"ELABE","commanditaire":"BFMTV, La Tribune Dimanche","debut":"2026-08-26","fin":"2026-08-28","echantillon":1501,"exprimes":1378,"population":"représentatif des résidents de France métropolitaine âgés de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2253","resume":"ELABE pour BFMTV, La Tribune Dimanche, sondage réalisé du 26 au 28 août 2026 auprès de 1 501 personnes, dont 1 378 exprimant une intention de vote. Marine Le Pen recueillerait 34 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (17 %) et Jean-Luc Mélenchon (14 %). Dans l'hypothèse d'un duel, Marine Le Pen l'emporterait nettement avec 70 % face à Jean-Luc Mélenchon (31 %) (4 duels testés).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H50","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Glucksmann + Tondelier + de Villepin","exprimes":1378,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":34,"margeErreur":2.5},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":17,"margeErreur":1.98},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":14,"margeErreur":1.83},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":11.5,"margeErreur":1.68},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":6.5,"margeErreur":1.3},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.03},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3.5,"margeErreur":0.97},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.9},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.9},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de 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Le Figaro, Sud Radio, sondage réalisé du 24 au 25 août 2026 auprès de 1 800 personnes, dont 872 exprimant une intention de vote. Marine Le Pen recueillerait 33 % des intentions de vote, devant Jean-Luc Mélenchon (16 %) et Édouard Philippe (15 %). Dans l'hypothèse d'un duel, Marine Le Pen l'emporterait avec 52 % face à Édouard Philippe (48 %) (6 duels testés).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H67","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Glucksmann + Attal + Roussel + Tondelier","exprimes":930,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":33,"margeErreur":3.02},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":16,"margeErreur":2.36},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":14.5,"margeErreur":2.26},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":11,"margeErreur":2.01},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":8,"margeErreur":1.74},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":6,"margeErreur":1.53},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3.5,"margeErreur":1.18},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.1},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.1},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":1.5,"margeErreur":0.78},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie 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Tondelier","exprimes":909,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":34,"margeErreur":3.08},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":17,"margeErreur":2.44},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.32},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":14,"margeErreur":2.26},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":9,"margeErreur":1.86},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.11},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.11},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.11},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":1.5,"margeErreur":0.79},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":0.5,"margeErreur":0.46}]},{"id":"H70","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Glucksmann","exprimes":925,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":33,"margeErreur":3.03},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard 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Marine Le Pen recueillerait 35 % des intentions de vote, devant Jean-Luc Mélenchon (16 %) et Édouard Philippe (14 %). Dans l'hypothèse d'un duel, Marine Le Pen l'emporterait nettement avec 68 % face à Jean-Luc Mélenchon (32 %) (3 duels testés).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H67","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Glucksmann + Attal","exprimes":1764,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":35,"margeErreur":2.23},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":16,"margeErreur":1.71},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":14,"margeErreur":1.62},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":10,"margeErreur":1.4},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":8,"margeErreur":1.27},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":6,"margeErreur":1.11},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.8},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.8},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.65},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.65},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie 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Marine Le Pen recueillerait 30 % des intentions de vote, devant Jean-Luc Mélenchon (18 %) et Édouard Philippe (18 %). Dans l'hypothèse d'un duel, Marine Le Pen l'emporterait nettement avec 61 % face à Jean-Luc Mélenchon (39 %) (5 duels testés).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H50","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe seul","exprimes":1032,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":30.1,"margeErreur":2.8},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":18.2,"margeErreur":2.35},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":18.1,"margeErreur":2.35},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":10.2,"margeErreur":1.85},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":7.8,"margeErreur":1.64},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3.8,"margeErreur":1.17},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":3.2,"margeErreur":1.07},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":2.9,"margeErreur":1.02},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":2.8,"margeErreur":1.01},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.85},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":0.9,"margeErreur":0.58}]},{"id":"H52","tour":"premier","libelle":"Attal seul","exprimes":1052,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":29.9,"margeErreur":2.77},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":18.3,"margeErreur":2.34},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":13.8,"margeErreur":2.08},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":10.3,"margeErreur":1.84},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":9.7,"margeErreur":1.79},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":4.2,"margeErreur":1.21},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.18},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":3.9,"margeErreur":1.17},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3.1,"margeErreur":1.05},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":1.8,"margeErreur":0.8},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.6}]},{"id":"H2_9","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Mélenchon","exprimes":997,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":60.8,"margeErreur":3.03},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":39.2,"margeErreur":3.03}]},{"id":"H2_10","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Glucksmann","exprimes":1001,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":55.9,"margeErreur":3.08},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":44.1,"margeErreur":3.08}]},{"id":"H2_2","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Philippe","exprimes":968,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":51.8,"margeErreur":3.15},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":48.2,"margeErreur":3.15}]},{"id":"H2_8","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Attal","exprimes":939,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":56.2,"margeErreur":3.17},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":43.8,"margeErreur":3.17}]},{"id":"H2_11","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Retailleau","exprimes":771,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":57.1,"margeErreur":3.49},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":42.9,"margeErreur":3.49}]}]},{"slug":"verian-2026-07-10","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/verian-2026-07-10","institut":"Verian","commanditaire":"L'Hémicycle","debut":"2026-07-08","fin":"2026-07-10","echantillon":1047,"exprimes":818,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2230","resume":"Verian pour L'Hémicycle, sondage réalisé du 8 au 10 juillet 2026 auprès de 1 047 personnes, dont 818 exprimant une intention de vote. Marine Le Pen recueillerait 37 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (17 %) et Jean-Luc Mélenchon (15 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H72","tour":"premier","libelle":"Liste unique","exprimes":818,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":37,"margeErreur":3.31},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":17,"margeErreur":2.57},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.45},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":11,"margeErreur":2.14},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":8,"margeErreur":1.86},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":7,"margeErreur":1.75},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.17},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.96}]}]},{"slug":"elabe-2026-07-10","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/elabe-2026-07-10","institut":"ELABE","commanditaire":"BFMTV, La Tribune Dimanche","debut":"2026-07-09","fin":"2026-07-10","echantillon":1503,"exprimes":1390,"population":"représentatif des résidents de France métropolitaine âgés de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2231","resume":"ELABE pour BFMTV, La Tribune Dimanche, sondage réalisé du 9 au 10 juillet 2026 auprès de 1 503 personnes, dont 1 390 exprimant une intention de vote. Marine Le Pen recueillerait 35 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (17 %) et Jean-Luc Mélenchon (16 %). Dans l'hypothèse d'un duel, Marine Le Pen l'emporterait nettement avec 68 % face à Jean-Luc Mélenchon (33 %) (5 duels testés).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H50","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Glucksmann + Tondelier + de Villepin","exprimes":1390,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":35,"margeErreur":2.51},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":16.5,"margeErreur":1.95},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":16,"margeErreur":1.93},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":10.5,"margeErreur":1.61},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":8,"margeErreur":1.43},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3.5,"margeErreur":0.97},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.9},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2.5,"margeErreur":0.82},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":2.5,"margeErreur":0.82},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":1.5,"margeErreur":0.64},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.52}]},{"id":"H52","tour":"premier","libelle":"Attal + Glucksmann + Tondelier + de Villepin","exprimes":1390,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":34,"margeErreur":2.49},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":14.5,"margeErreur":1.85},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":13.5,"margeErreur":1.8},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":11,"margeErreur":1.64},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":11,"margeErreur":1.64},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3.5,"margeErreur":0.97},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":3.5,"margeErreur":0.97},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3.5,"margeErreur":0.97},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2.5,"margeErreur":0.82},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1.5,"margeErreur":0.64},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":1.5,"margeErreur":0.64}]},{"id":"H73","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Hollande + Ruffin","exprimes":1390,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":35,"margeErreur":2.51},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":19,"margeErreur":2.06},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":14.5,"margeErreur":1.85},{"id":"FH","nom":"François Hollande","intentions":9,"margeErreur":1.5},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":9,"margeErreur":1.5},{"id":"FR","nom":"François Ruffin","intentions":6,"margeErreur":1.25},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":2.5,"margeErreur":0.82},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.74},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1.5,"margeErreur":0.64},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":1.5,"margeErreur":0.64}]},{"id":"H74","tour":"premier","libelle":"Attal + Hollande + Ruffin","exprimes":1390,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":35.5,"margeErreur":2.52},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":15.5,"margeErreur":1.9},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":15,"margeErreur":1.88},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":11,"margeErreur":1.64},{"id":"FH","nom":"François Hollande","intentions":8,"margeErreur":1.43},{"id":"FR","nom":"François Ruffin","intentions":6,"margeErreur":1.25},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3.5,"margeErreur":0.97},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2.5,"margeErreur":0.82},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1.5,"margeErreur":0.64},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":1.5,"margeErreur":0.64}]},{"id":"H67","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Glucksmann + Attal + Tondelier","exprimes":1390,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":35,"margeErreur":2.51},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":14.5,"margeErreur":1.85},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":14,"margeErreur":1.82},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":8.5,"margeErreur":1.47},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":8.5,"margeErreur":1.47},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":7.5,"margeErreur":1.38},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.03},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.9},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2.5,"margeErreur":0.82},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":1.5,"margeErreur":0.64},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.52}]},{"id":"H58","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Hollande + Tondelier + de Villepin","exprimes":1390,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":34.5,"margeErreur":2.5},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":18,"margeErreur":2.02},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":15,"margeErreur":1.88},{"id":"FH","nom":"François Hollande","intentions":8,"margeErreur":1.43},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":8,"margeErreur":1.43},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.03},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.9},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.9},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.9},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.74},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":1.5,"margeErreur":0.64}]},{"id":"H2_9","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Mélenchon","exprimes":1390,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":67.5,"margeErreur":2.46},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":32.5,"margeErreur":2.46}]},{"id":"H2_10","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Glucksmann","exprimes":1390,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":58.5,"margeErreur":2.59},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":41.5,"margeErreur":2.59}]},{"id":"H2_8","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Attal","exprimes":1390,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":54,"margeErreur":2.62},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":46,"margeErreur":2.62}]},{"id":"H2_2","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Philippe","exprimes":1390,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":52,"margeErreur":2.63},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":48,"margeErreur":2.63}]},{"id":"H2_11","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Retailleau","exprimes":1390,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":56,"margeErreur":2.61},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":44,"margeErreur":2.61}]}]},{"slug":"cluster17-2026-07-09","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/cluster17-2026-07-09","institut":"Cluster17","commanditaire":"Le Point","debut":"2026-07-08","fin":"2026-07-09","echantillon":1837,"exprimes":1837,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2233","resume":"Cluster17 pour Le Point, sondage réalisé du 8 au 9 juillet 2026 auprès de 1 837 personnes. Marine Le Pen recueillerait 30 % des intentions de vote, devant Jean-Luc Mélenchon (17 %) et Édouard Philippe (14 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H78","tour":"premier","libelle":"Liste unique","exprimes":1837,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":29.6,"margeErreur":2.09},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":17,"margeErreur":1.72},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":13.6,"margeErreur":1.57},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":7.7,"margeErreur":1.22},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":6.3,"margeErreur":1.11},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":6.3,"margeErreur":1.11},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":4.3,"margeErreur":0.93},{"id":"DL","nom":"David Lisnard","intentions":4.1,"margeErreur":0.91},{"id":"FR","nom":"François Ruffin","intentions":4,"margeErreur":0.9},{"id":"FH","nom":"François Hollande","intentions":2.4,"margeErreur":0.7},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":2.2,"margeErreur":0.67},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":1.6,"margeErreur":0.57},{"id":"OF","nom":"Olivier Faure","intentions":0.9,"margeErreur":0.43}]}]},{"slug":"opinionway-2026-07-09","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/opinionway-2026-07-09","institut":"OpinionWay","commanditaire":"Les Echos, Radio Classique","debut":"2026-07-08","fin":"2026-07-09","echantillon":1042,"exprimes":696,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2229","resume":"OpinionWay pour Les Echos, Radio Classique, sondage réalisé du 8 au 9 juillet 2026 auprès de 1 042 personnes, dont 696 exprimant une intention de vote. Marine Le Pen recueillerait 35 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (18 %) et Jean-Luc Mélenchon (13 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H77","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Attal","exprimes":696,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":35,"margeErreur":3.54},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":18,"margeErreur":2.85},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":13,"margeErreur":2.5},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":9,"margeErreur":2.13},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":8,"margeErreur":2.02},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":7,"margeErreur":1.9},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.62},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.27},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.04},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":0.5,"margeErreur":0.52}]},{"id":"H28","tour":"premier","libelle":"Attal seul","exprimes":696,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":36,"margeErreur":3.57},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":16,"margeErreur":2.72},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.65},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":12,"margeErreur":2.41},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":10,"margeErreur":2.23},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.62},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.27},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.04},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.74}]},{"id":"H26","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe seul","exprimes":696,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":34,"margeErreur":3.52},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":22,"margeErreur":3.08},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.65},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":9,"margeErreur":2.13},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":9,"margeErreur":2.13},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.46},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.46},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.04},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.74}]}]},{"slug":"harris-interactive-2026-07-08","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/harris-interactive-2026-07-08","institut":"Harris Interactive","commanditaire":"M6, RTL","debut":"2026-07-07","fin":"2026-07-08","echantillon":1837,"exprimes":1592,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2228","resume":"Harris Interactive pour M6, RTL, sondage réalisé du 7 au 8 juillet 2026 auprès de 1 837 personnes, dont 1 592 exprimant une intention de vote. Marine Le Pen recueillerait 35 % des intentions de vote, devant Jean-Luc Mélenchon (16 %) et Édouard Philippe (14 %). Dans l'hypothèse d'un duel, Marine Le Pen l'emporterait nettement avec 67 % face à Jean-Luc Mélenchon (33 %) (3 duels testés).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H67","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Glucksmann + Attal","exprimes":1592,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":35,"margeErreur":2.34},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":16,"margeErreur":1.8},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":14,"margeErreur":1.7},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":10,"margeErreur":1.47},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":8,"margeErreur":1.33},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":7,"margeErreur":1.25},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":4,"margeErreur":0.96},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.69},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.69},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.49},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas 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Marine Le Pen recueillerait 36 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (19 %) et Jean-Luc Mélenchon (15 %). Dans l'hypothèse d'un duel, Marine Le Pen l'emporterait avec 54 % face à Édouard Philippe (46 %) (3 duels testés).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H42","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe seul","exprimes":624,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":36,"margeErreur":3.77},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":19,"margeErreur":3.08},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.8},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":9,"margeErreur":2.25},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":8,"margeErreur":2.13},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.54},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3.5,"margeErreur":1.44},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.34},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.1},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":0.5,"margeErreur":0.55}]},{"id":"H44","tour":"premier","libelle":"Attal seul","exprimes":625,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":36,"margeErreur":3.76},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.8},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.8},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":12,"margeErreur":2.55},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":10,"margeErreur":2.35},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.54},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3.5,"margeErreur":1.44},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.1},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.1},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":0.5,"margeErreur":0.55}]},{"id":"H2_2","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Philippe","exprimes":589,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":54,"margeErreur":4.03},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":46,"margeErreur":4.03}]},{"id":"H2_8","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Attal","exprimes":581,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":55,"margeErreur":4.05},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":45,"margeErreur":4.05}]},{"id":"H2_9","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Le Pen – Mélenchon","exprimes":498,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":70,"margeErreur":4.02},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":30,"margeErreur":4.02}]}]},{"slug":"ifop-2026-06-24","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/ifop-2026-06-24","institut":"IFOP","commanditaire":"LCI, Le Figaro, Sud Radio","debut":"2026-06-22","fin":"2026-06-24","echantillon":1539,"exprimes":802,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2216","resume":"IFOP pour LCI, Le Figaro, Sud Radio, sondage réalisé du 22 au 24 juin 2026 auprès de 1 539 personnes, dont 802 exprimant une intention de vote. 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Jordan Bardella recueillerait 32 % des intentions de vote, devant Jean-Luc Mélenchon (14 %) et Édouard Philippe (13 %). 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Jordan Bardella recueillerait 32 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (17 %) et Jean-Luc Mélenchon (16 %). Dans l'hypothèse d'un duel, Jordan Bardella l'emporterait avec 52 % face à Édouard Philippe (48 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H41","tour":"premier","libelle":"Liste unique","exprimes":681,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":32,"margeErreur":3.5},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":17,"margeErreur":2.82},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":16,"margeErreur":2.75},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":11,"margeErreur":2.35},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":9,"margeErreur":2.15},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":6,"margeErreur":1.78},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.47},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2.5,"margeErreur":1.17},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.05},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":0.5,"margeErreur":0.53}]},{"id":"H2_1","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Bardella – Philippe","exprimes":630,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":52,"margeErreur":3.9},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":48,"margeErreur":3.9}]}]},{"slug":"harris-interactive-2026-04-30","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/harris-interactive-2026-04-30","institut":"Harris Interactive","commanditaire":"M6, RTL","debut":"2026-04-28","fin":"2026-04-30","echantillon":1989,"exprimes":1725,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2181","resume":"Harris Interactive pour M6, RTL, sondage réalisé du 28 au 30 avril 2026 auprès de 1 989 personnes, dont 1 725 exprimant une intention de vote. Jordan Bardella recueillerait 34 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (19 %) et Jean-Luc Mélenchon (12 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H41","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella + Philippe","exprimes":1725,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":34,"margeErreur":2.24},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":19,"margeErreur":1.85},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":12,"margeErreur":1.53},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":11,"margeErreur":1.48},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":9,"margeErreur":1.35},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.03},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":4,"margeErreur":0.92},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":0.92},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.47},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.47}]},{"id":"H42","tour":"premier","libelle":"Le Pen + Philippe","exprimes":1725,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":32,"margeErreur":2.2},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":19,"margeErreur":1.85},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":12,"margeErreur":1.53},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":11,"margeErreur":1.48},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":10,"margeErreur":1.42},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":6,"margeErreur":1.12},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":4,"margeErreur":0.92},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":0.92},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.47},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.47}]},{"id":"H43","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella + Attal","exprimes":1725,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":35,"margeErreur":2.25},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":14,"margeErreur":1.64},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":13,"margeErreur":1.59},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":12,"margeErreur":1.53},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":12,"margeErreur":1.53},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.03},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":0.92},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.81},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.47},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.47}]},{"id":"H44","tour":"premier","libelle":"Le Pen + Attal","exprimes":1725,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":33,"margeErreur":2.22},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":14,"margeErreur":1.64},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":13,"margeErreur":1.59},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":12,"margeErreur":1.53},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":12,"margeErreur":1.53},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.03},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":4,"margeErreur":0.92},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":0.92},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.66},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.47}]}]},{"slug":"elabe-2026-03-27","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/elabe-2026-03-27","institut":"ELABE","commanditaire":"BFMTV, La Tribune Dimanche","debut":"2026-03-25","fin":"2026-03-27","echantillon":1504,"exprimes":1422,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2166","resume":"ELABE pour BFMTV, La Tribune Dimanche, sondage réalisé du 25 au 27 mars 2026 auprès de 1 504 personnes, dont 1 422 exprimant une intention de vote. Jordan Bardella recueillerait 35 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (21 %) et Jean-Luc Mélenchon (11 %). Dans l'hypothèse d'un duel, Jordan Bardella l'emporterait nettement avec 72 % face à Jean-Luc Mélenchon (29 %) (6 duels testés).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H45","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella + Philippe + Glucksmann + Retailleau + Tondelier + Zemmour","exprimes":1422,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":35,"margeErreur":2.48},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":20.5,"margeErreur":2.1},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":10.5,"margeErreur":1.59},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":10.5,"margeErreur":1.59},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":7,"margeErreur":1.33},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4.5,"margeErreur":1.08},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.89},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.89},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.89},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas 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vote. Jordan Bardella recueillerait 34 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (21 %) et Jean-Luc Mélenchon (12 %). Dans l'hypothèse d'un duel, Édouard Philippe l'emporterait avec 52 % face à Jordan Bardella (48 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H62","tour":"premier","libelle":"Retailleau","exprimes":853,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":34,"margeErreur":3.18},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":21,"margeErreur":2.73},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":12,"margeErreur":2.18},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":10,"margeErreur":2.01},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":8,"margeErreur":1.82},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.46},{"id":"SK","nom":"Sarah Knafo","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.46},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.94},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.94},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.67}]},{"id":"H63","tour":"premier","libelle":"Sans Retailleau","exprimes":847,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":38,"margeErreur":3.27},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":25,"margeErreur":2.92},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":13,"margeErreur":2.26},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":10,"margeErreur":2.02},{"id":"SK","nom":"Sarah Knafo","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.47},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.32},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.94},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.94},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.67}]},{"id":"H2_1","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Philippe – Bardella","exprimes":812,"scores":[{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":52,"margeErreur":3.44},{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":48,"margeErreur":3.44}]}]},{"slug":"opinionway-2026-03-26","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/opinionway-2026-03-26","institut":"OpinionWay","commanditaire":"POLLitics","debut":"2026-03-25","fin":"2026-03-26","echantillon":1051,"exprimes":788,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2257","resume":"OpinionWay pour POLLitics, sondage réalisé du 25 au 26 mars 2026 auprès de 1 051 personnes, dont 788 exprimant une intention de vote. Jordan Bardella recueillerait 37 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (18 %) et Raphaël Glucksmann (15 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H96","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Glucksmann","exprimes":788,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":37,"margeErreur":3.37},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":18,"margeErreur":2.68},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.49},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":13,"margeErreur":2.35},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":11,"margeErreur":2.18},{"id":"SK","nom":"Sarah Knafo","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.52},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.69}]},{"id":"H97","tour":"premier","libelle":"Glucksmann + Attal","exprimes":788,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":38,"margeErreur":3.39},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.49},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.49},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":14,"margeErreur":2.42},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":12,"margeErreur":2.27},{"id":"SK","nom":"Sarah Knafo","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.52},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.69}]},{"id":"H98","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe + Hollande","exprimes":788,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":37,"margeErreur":3.37},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":20,"margeErreur":2.79},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":14,"margeErreur":2.42},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":13,"margeErreur":2.35},{"id":"FH","nom":"François Hollande","intentions":11,"margeErreur":2.18},{"id":"SK","nom":"Sarah Knafo","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.37},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.69}]},{"id":"H99","tour":"premier","libelle":"Attal + Hollande","exprimes":788,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":38,"margeErreur":3.39},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":16,"margeErreur":2.56},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":14,"margeErreur":2.42},{"id":"FH","nom":"François Hollande","intentions":13,"margeErreur":2.35},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":13,"margeErreur":2.35},{"id":"SK","nom":"Sarah Knafo","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.52},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.69}]}]},{"slug":"harris-interactive-2026-03-22","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/harris-interactive-2026-03-22","institut":"Harris Interactive","commanditaire":"M6, RTL","debut":"2026-03-22","fin":"2026-03-22","echantillon":1000,"exprimes":1000,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2165","resume":"Harris Interactive pour M6, RTL, sondage réalisé le 22 mars 2026 auprès de 1 000 personnes. Jordan Bardella recueillerait 35 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (18 %) et Raphaël Glucksmann (14 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H41","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe seul","exprimes":1000,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":35,"margeErreur":2.96},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":18,"margeErreur":2.38},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":14,"margeErreur":2.15},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":11,"margeErreur":1.94},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":7,"margeErreur":1.58},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.35},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.21},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.06},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.87},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.62}]},{"id":"H43","tour":"premier","libelle":"Attal seul","exprimes":1000,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":36,"margeErreur":2.98},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":14,"margeErreur":2.15},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":13,"margeErreur":2.08},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":11,"margeErreur":1.94},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":10,"margeErreur":1.86},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.35},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.35},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.06},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.87},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.62}]}]},{"slug":"ifop-2026-02-27","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/ifop-2026-02-27","institut":"IFOP","commanditaire":"Sud Radio, Le Figaro","debut":"2026-02-26","fin":"2026-02-27","echantillon":1500,"exprimes":758,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2110","resume":"IFOP pour Sud Radio, Le Figaro, sondage réalisé du 26 au 27 février 2026 auprès de 1 500 personnes, dont 758 exprimant une intention de vote. Jordan Bardella recueillerait 36 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (16 %) et Jean-Luc Mélenchon (11 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H45","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella + Philippe + Glucksmann + Retailleau + de Villepin","exprimes":784,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":36,"margeErreur":3.36},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":16,"margeErreur":2.57},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":11,"margeErreur":2.19},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":10,"margeErreur":2.1},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":10,"margeErreur":2.1},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.37},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.37},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":3.5,"margeErreur":1.29},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2.5,"margeErreur":1.09},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.98},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.7}]},{"id":"H50","tour":"premier","libelle":"Le Pen + Philippe + Glucksmann + Retailleau + de Villepin","exprimes":793,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":34,"margeErreur":3.3},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":16,"margeErreur":2.55},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":11,"margeErreur":2.18},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":11,"margeErreur":2.18},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":10,"margeErreur":2.09},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.52},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.36},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.36},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.97},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.97},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.69}]},{"id":"H51","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella + Glucksmann + Retailleau + Attal + de Villepin","exprimes":795,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":36,"margeErreur":3.34},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":12,"margeErreur":2.26},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":12,"margeErreur":2.26},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":11,"margeErreur":2.18},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":10,"margeErreur":2.09},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.36},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.36},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.36},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.19},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.97},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.97}]},{"id":"H52","tour":"premier","libelle":"Le Pen + Glucksmann + Retailleau + Attal + de Villepin","exprimes":780,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":35,"margeErreur":3.35},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":12,"margeErreur":2.28},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":12,"margeErreur":2.28},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":11,"margeErreur":2.2},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":10,"margeErreur":2.11},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4.5,"margeErreur":1.45},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":4.5,"margeErreur":1.45},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.38},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.2},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.98},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.98}]},{"id":"H53","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella + Glucksmann + Retailleau + Darmanin + de Villepin","exprimes":770,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":37,"margeErreur":3.41},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":13,"margeErreur":2.38},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":13,"margeErreur":2.38},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":10,"margeErreur":2.12},{"id":"GD","nom":"Gérald Darmanin","intentions":8,"margeErreur":1.92},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.54},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.38},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.2},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.2},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2.5,"margeErreur":1.1},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1.5,"margeErreur":0.86}]},{"id":"H54","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella + Glucksmann + Retailleau + Lecornu + de Villepin","exprimes":771,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":37,"margeErreur":3.41},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":13,"margeErreur":2.37},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":13,"margeErreur":2.37},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":10,"margeErreur":2.12},{"id":"SL","nom":"Sébastien Lecornu","intentions":6,"margeErreur":1.68},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.54},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4.5,"margeErreur":1.46},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3.5,"margeErreur":1.3},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.2},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.2},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.99}]},{"id":"H55","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella + Philippe + Glucksmann","exprimes":797,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":37,"margeErreur":3.35},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":23,"margeErreur":2.92},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":12,"margeErreur":2.26},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":11,"margeErreur":2.17},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.51},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4.5,"margeErreur":1.44},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.18},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2.5,"margeErreur":1.08},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.97}]},{"id":"H56","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella + Retailleau + Glucksmann","exprimes":758,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":38,"margeErreur":3.46},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno 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Jordan Bardella recueillerait 27 % des intentions de vote, devant Jean-Luc Mélenchon (25 %) et Raphaël Glucksmann (10 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H17","tour":"premier","libelle":"Liste unique","exprimes":742,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":27,"margeErreur":3.19},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":25,"margeErreur":3.12},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":10,"margeErreur":2.16},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":9,"margeErreur":2.06},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":8,"margeErreur":1.95},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":6,"margeErreur":1.71},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.41},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.23},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.23},{"id":"FR","nom":"François Ruffin","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.01},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.72},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.72},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.72}]}]},{"slug":"verian-2025-11-20","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/verian-2025-11-20","institut":"Verian","commanditaire":"L’hémicycle","debut":"2025-11-18","fin":"2025-11-20","echantillon":1000,"exprimes":1000,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2008","resume":"Verian pour L’hémicycle, sondage réalisé du 18 au 20 novembre 2025 auprès de 1 000 personnes. Jordan Bardella recueillerait 37 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (17 %) et Raphaël Glucksmann (13 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"","tour":"premier","libelle":"Liste unique","exprimes":1000,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":36.5,"margeErreur":2.98},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":17,"margeErreur":2.33},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":13,"margeErreur":2.08},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":12,"margeErreur":2.01},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":7.5,"margeErreur":1.63},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.35},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.21},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.06},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.87}]}]},{"slug":"odoxa-2025-11-20","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/odoxa-2025-11-20","institut":"ODOXA","commanditaire":"Public Sénat, La Presse Regionale","debut":"2025-11-19","fin":"2025-11-20","echantillon":1300,"exprimes":864,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2007","resume":"ODOXA pour Public Sénat, La Presse Regionale, sondage réalisé du 19 au 20 novembre 2025 auprès de 1 300 personnes, dont 864 exprimant une intention de vote. Jordan Bardella recueillerait 35 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (17 %) et Raphaël Glucksmann (14 %). Dans l'hypothèse d'un duel, Jordan Bardella l'emporterait avec 53 % face à Édouard Philippe (47 %) (4 duels testés).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H41","tour":"premier","libelle":"Philippe seul","exprimes":874,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":35,"margeErreur":3.16},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":17,"margeErreur":2.49},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":13.5,"margeErreur":2.27},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":11,"margeErreur":2.07},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":8,"margeErreur":1.8},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":6,"margeErreur":1.57},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3.5,"margeErreur":1.22},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.13},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.93},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.66}]},{"id":"H43","tour":"premier","libelle":"Attal seul","exprimes":864,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":36,"margeErreur":3.2},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":14.5,"margeErreur":2.35},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":12,"margeErreur":2.17},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":11,"margeErreur":2.09},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":10,"margeErreur":2},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":6.5,"margeErreur":1.64},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.14},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.14},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.14},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.66}]},{"id":"H2_1","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Bardella – Philippe","exprimes":803,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":53,"margeErreur":3.45},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":47,"margeErreur":3.45}]},{"id":"H2_6","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Bardella – Glucksmann","exprimes":795,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":58,"margeErreur":3.43},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":42,"margeErreur":3.43}]},{"id":"H2_5","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Bardella – Mélenchon","exprimes":689,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":74,"margeErreur":3.28},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":26,"margeErreur":3.28}]},{"id":"H2_4","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Bardella – Attal","exprimes":776,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":56,"margeErreur":3.49},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":44,"margeErreur":3.49}]}]},{"slug":"elabe-2025-10-31","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/elabe-2025-10-31","institut":"ELABE","commanditaire":"BFMTV, La Tribune Dimanche","debut":"2025-10-30","fin":"2025-10-31","echantillon":1501,"exprimes":1396,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/1991","resume":"ELABE pour BFMTV, La Tribune Dimanche, sondage réalisé du 30 au 31 octobre 2025 auprès de 1 501 personnes, dont 1 396 exprimant une intention de vote. Jordan Bardella recueillerait 35 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (16 %) et Jean-Luc Mélenchon (13 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H45","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella + Philippe + Glucksmann + Retailleau + Zemmour","exprimes":1396,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":35,"margeErreur":2.5},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":15.5,"margeErreur":1.9},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":12.5,"margeErreur":1.73},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":11,"margeErreur":1.64},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":8,"margeErreur":1.42},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4.5,"margeErreur":1.09},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":4.5,"margeErreur":1.09},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.89},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.89},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.73},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.52}]},{"id":"H46","tour":"premier","libelle":"Le Pen + Attal + Glucksmann + Retailleau + Knafo","exprimes":1396,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":34,"margeErreur":2.48},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":12.5,"margeErreur":1.73},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":12,"margeErreur":1.7},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":11.5,"margeErreur":1.67},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":8,"margeErreur":1.42},{"id":"SK","nom":"Sarah Knafo","intentions":6.5,"margeErreur":1.29},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4.5,"margeErreur":1.09},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.03},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.89},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2.5,"margeErreur":0.82},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1.5,"margeErreur":0.64}]},{"id":"H47","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella + Glucksmann + Retailleau + Darmanin + de Villiers","exprimes":1396,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":37.5,"margeErreur":2.54},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":13,"margeErreur":1.76},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":13,"margeErreur":1.76},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":8.5,"margeErreur":1.46},{"id":"GD","nom":"Gérald Darmanin","intentions":7,"margeErreur":1.34},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.14},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.14},{"id":"PdV","nom":"Philippe de Villiers","intentions":4.5,"margeErreur":1.09},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.89},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.73},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1.5,"margeErreur":0.64}]},{"id":"H48","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella + Philippe + Knafo + Faure + Wauquiez","exprimes":1396,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":36.5,"margeErreur":2.53},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":19.5,"margeErreur":2.08},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":12.5,"margeErreur":1.73},{"id":"SK","nom":"Sarah Knafo","intentions":6,"margeErreur":1.25},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":5.5,"margeErreur":1.2},{"id":"OF","nom":"Olivier Faure","intentions":5.5,"margeErreur":1.2},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":4.5,"margeErreur":1.09},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.03},{"id":"LW","nom":"Laurent Wauquiez","intentions":3,"margeErreur":0.89},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.73},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie 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Jordan Bardella recueillerait 35 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (15 %) et Jean-Luc Mélenchon (14 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H41","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella + Philippe","exprimes":1124,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":35,"margeErreur":2.79},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.09},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":14,"margeErreur":2.03},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":12,"margeErreur":1.9},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":10,"margeErreur":1.75},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":6,"margeErreur":1.39},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.58},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.58}]},{"id":"H42","tour":"premier","libelle":"Le Pen + Philippe","exprimes":1124,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":34,"margeErreur":2.77},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":16,"margeErreur":2.14},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":14,"margeErreur":2.03},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":12,"margeErreur":1.9},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":10,"margeErreur":1.75},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":6,"margeErreur":1.39},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.58},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.58}]},{"id":"H43","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella + Attal","exprimes":1124,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":35,"margeErreur":2.79},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":14,"margeErreur":2.03},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":14,"margeErreur":2.03},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":12,"margeErreur":1.9},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":11,"margeErreur":1.83},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":6,"margeErreur":1.39},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.58},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.58}]},{"id":"H44","tour":"premier","libelle":"Le Pen + Attal","exprimes":1124,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":34,"margeErreur":2.77},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":14,"margeErreur":2.03},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":14,"margeErreur":2.03},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":12,"margeErreur":1.9},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":11,"margeErreur":1.83},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":6,"margeErreur":1.39},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.82},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.58}]}]},{"slug":"cluster17-2025-10-01","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/cluster17-2025-10-01","institut":"Cluster17","commanditaire":"Le Point","debut":"2025-09-30","fin":"2025-10-01","echantillon":1531,"exprimes":907,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/1972","resume":"Cluster17 pour Le Point, sondage réalisé du 30 septembre au 1 octobre 2025 auprès de 1 531 personnes, dont 907 exprimant une intention de vote. Jordan Bardella recueillerait 30 % des intentions de vote, devant Jean-Luc Mélenchon (15 %) et Raphaël Glucksmann (15 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H37","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella + Glucksmann + Philippe","exprimes":924,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":30,"margeErreur":2.95},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.3},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.3},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.3},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":12,"margeErreur":2.1},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":5.5,"margeErreur":1.47},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":3.5,"margeErreur":1.18},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.1},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.64}]},{"id":"H38","tour":"premier","libelle":"Le Pen + Glucksmann + Attal","exprimes":907,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":30.5,"margeErreur":3},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.32},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.32},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":14,"margeErreur":2.26},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":12,"margeErreur":2.11},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":5.5,"margeErreur":1.48},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":3.5,"margeErreur":1.2},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.11},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1.5,"margeErreur":0.79}]},{"id":"H39","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella + Philippe + Tondelier","exprimes":911,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":31,"margeErreur":3},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":19.5,"margeErreur":2.57},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.32},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":12.5,"margeErreur":2.15},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":7.5,"margeErreur":1.71},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":5.5,"margeErreur":1.48},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.27},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.27},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.65}]},{"id":"H40","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella + Philippe + Faure","exprimes":924,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":30,"margeErreur":2.95},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":19.5,"margeErreur":2.55},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":14,"margeErreur":2.24},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":13,"margeErreur":2.17},{"id":"OF","nom":"Olivier Faure","intentions":8,"margeErreur":1.75},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":5.5,"margeErreur":1.47},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":4.5,"margeErreur":1.34},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.26},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1.5,"margeErreur":0.78}]}]},{"slug":"ifop-2025-09-25","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/ifop-2025-09-25","institut":"IFOP","commanditaire":"L'Opinion, Sud Radio","debut":"2025-09-24","fin":"2025-09-25","echantillon":1210,"exprimes":1127,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/1969","resume":"IFOP pour L'Opinion, Sud Radio, sondage réalisé du 24 au 25 septembre 2025 auprès de 1 210 personnes, dont 1 127 exprimant une intention de vote. Marine Le Pen recueillerait 33 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (16 %) et Raphaël Glucksmann (15 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H29","tour":"premier","libelle":"Le Pen + Philippe + Glucksmann","exprimes":1127,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":33,"margeErreur":2.75},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":16,"margeErreur":2.14},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.08},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":12,"margeErreur":1.9},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":9,"margeErreur":1.67},{"id":"DV","nom":"Dominique de Villepin","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.27},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.14},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":0.82},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.58}]},{"id":"H30","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella 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Marine Le Pen recueillerait 31 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (21 %) et Bruno Retailleau (16 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H35","tour":"premier","libelle":"Le Pen seul","exprimes":633,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":31,"margeErreur":3.6},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":21,"margeErreur":3.17},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":16,"margeErreur":2.86},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":13.5,"margeErreur":2.66},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.7},{"id":"OF","nom":"Olivier Faure","intentions":4.5,"margeErreur":1.61},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.33},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.33},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.09},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.78}]},{"id":"H36","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella seul","exprimes":624,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":31,"margeErreur":3.63},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":21,"margeErreur":3.2},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":16,"margeErreur":2.88},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":13,"margeErreur":2.64},{"id":"OF","nom":"Olivier Faure","intentions":4.5,"margeErreur":1.63},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4.5,"margeErreur":1.63},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3.5,"margeErreur":1.44},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3.5,"margeErreur":1.44},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.1},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.78}]}]},{"slug":"harris-interactive-2025-05-19","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/harris-interactive-2025-05-19","institut":"Harris Interactive","commanditaire":"LCI","debut":"2025-05-19","fin":"2025-05-19","echantillon":1217,"exprimes":1071,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/1917","resume":"Harris Interactive pour LCI, sondage réalisé le 19 mai 2025 auprès de 1 217 personnes, dont 1 071 exprimant une intention de vote. Jordan Bardella recueillerait 30 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (21 %) et Jean-Luc Mélenchon (14 %).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H25","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella + Philippe","exprimes":1071,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":30,"margeErreur":2.74},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":21,"margeErreur":2.44},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":14,"margeErreur":2.08},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":13,"margeErreur":2.01},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":10,"margeErreur":1.8},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.31},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.02},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.02},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.6}]},{"id":"H26","tour":"premier","libelle":"Le Pen + Philippe","exprimes":1071,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":31,"margeErreur":2.77},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":21,"margeErreur":2.44},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":14,"margeErreur":2.08},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":12,"margeErreur":1.95},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":10,"margeErreur":1.8},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.31},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.02},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.02},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.6}]},{"id":"H27","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella + Attal","exprimes":1071,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":31,"margeErreur":2.77},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":17,"margeErreur":2.25},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.14},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":14,"margeErreur":2.08},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":11,"margeErreur":1.87},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.31},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.02},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.02},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.6}]},{"id":"H28","tour":"premier","libelle":"Le Pen + Attal","exprimes":1071,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":31,"margeErreur":2.77},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":16,"margeErreur":2.2},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.14},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":15,"margeErreur":2.14},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":11,"margeErreur":1.87},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":5,"margeErreur":1.31},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.02},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.02},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.6}]}]},{"slug":"odoxa-2025-04-24","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/odoxa-2025-04-24","institut":"ODOXA","commanditaire":"Public Senat, Presse Regionale","debut":"2025-04-23","fin":"2025-04-24","echantillon":1005,"exprimes":667,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/1901","resume":"ODOXA pour Public Senat, Presse Regionale, sondage réalisé du 23 au 24 avril 2025 auprès de 1 005 personnes, dont 667 exprimant une intention de vote. Marine Le Pen recueillerait 32 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (21 %) et Jean-Luc Mélenchon (12 %). Dans l'hypothèse d'un duel, Édouard Philippe l'emporterait nettement avec 54 % face à Jordan Bardella (46 %) (2 duels testés).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H15","tour":"premier","libelle":"Le Pen seul","exprimes":676,"scores":[{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":32,"margeErreur":3.52},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":20.5,"margeErreur":3.04},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":12,"margeErreur":2.45},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":11.5,"margeErreur":2.4},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":10,"margeErreur":2.26},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.29},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.29},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.29},{"id":"PP","nom":"Philippe Poutou","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.06},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.06},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.75}]},{"id":"H16","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella seul","exprimes":667,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":31.5,"margeErreur":3.53},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":20,"margeErreur":3.04},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":12,"margeErreur":2.47},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":12,"margeErreur":2.47},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":9.5,"margeErreur":2.23},{"id":"MT","nom":"Marine Tondelier","intentions":4,"margeErreur":1.49},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.29},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":3,"margeErreur":1.29},{"id":"PP","nom":"Philippe Poutou","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.06},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","intentions":2,"margeErreur":1.06},{"id":"NA","nom":"Nathalie Arthaud","intentions":1,"margeErreur":0.76}]},{"id":"H2_1","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Philippe – Bardella","exprimes":623,"scores":[{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":54,"margeErreur":3.91},{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":46,"margeErreur":3.91}]},{"id":"H2_2","tour":"second","libelle":"Duel Philippe – Le Pen","exprimes":625,"scores":[{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":54,"margeErreur":3.91},{"id":"MLP","nom":"Marine Le Pen","intentions":46,"margeErreur":3.91}]}]},{"slug":"ifop-2025-04-18","url":"https://sondage-presidentielle.fr/sondage/ifop-2025-04-18","institut":"IFOP","commanditaire":"Hexagone","debut":"2025-04-11","fin":"2025-04-18","echantillon":10000,"exprimes":1838,"population":"représentatif de la population française âgée de 18 ans et plus","notice":"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/1906","resume":"IFOP pour Hexagone, sondage réalisé du 11 au 18 avril 2025 auprès de 10 000 personnes, dont 1 838 exprimant une intention de vote. Jordan Bardella recueillerait 32 % des intentions de vote, devant Édouard Philippe (15 %) et Jean-Luc Mélenchon (10 %). Dans l'hypothèse d'un duel, Marine Le Pen l'emporterait nettement avec 52 % face à Édouard Philippe (48 %) (5 duels testés).","hypotheses":[{"id":"H17","tour":"premier","libelle":"Bardella + Philippe + Glucksmann + Attal + Retailleau + Ruffin + Roussel + Tondelier + de Villepin","exprimes":9128,"scores":[{"id":"JB","nom":"Jordan Bardella","intentions":32,"margeErreur":0.96},{"id":"EP","nom":"Édouard Philippe","intentions":15,"margeErreur":0.73},{"id":"JLM","nom":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","intentions":10,"margeErreur":0.62},{"id":"RG","nom":"Raphaël Glucksmann","intentions":9,"margeErreur":0.59},{"id":"GA","nom":"Gabriel Attal","intentions":8,"margeErreur":0.56},{"id":"BR","nom":"Bruno Retailleau","intentions":7.5,"margeErreur":0.54},{"id":"FR","nom":"François Ruffin","intentions":4.5,"margeErreur":0.43},{"id":"EZ","nom":"Éric Zemmour","intentions":4,"margeErreur":0.4},{"id":"FRo","nom":"Fabien Roussel","intentions":2.5,"margeErreur":0.32},{"id":"NDA","nom":"Nicolas 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